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RDS280. Decision Analysis for Health and Medical Practices (Department of Health Policy and Management and the Department of Biostatistics)
Dr. S. Goldie

Lectures. Two 2-hour sessions each week.
This course is designed to introduce the student to the methods and growing range of applications of decision analysis, cost-effectiveness analysis, and benefit-cost analysis in health care technology assessment, medical decision making, and health resource allocation. The objectives of the course are: (1) to provide a technical understanding of the methods used, (2) to give the student an appreciation of the practical problems in applying these methods to the evaluation of medical procedures and public health policies, and (3) to give the student an appreciation of the uses and limitations of these methods in decision making at the levels of national policy, health care organizations including hospitals and health maintenance organizations, and individual patient care. Course Note: Introductory course in probability and statistics required; BIO 200, BIO 201, or BIH 203 may be taken concurrently; introductory economics is recommended but not required.

RDS281. Methods for Decision Analysis in Public Health and Medicine (Department of Health Policy and Management and the Department of Biostatistics)
Dr. K. Kuntz

Lectures, seminars. Two 2-hour sessions each week.
An intermediate-level course on methods and health applications of decision analysis and other modeling techniques. Topics include Markov models, life expectancy modeling, deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analysis, simulation models, ROC analysis and diagnostic technology assessment, quality of life valuation, multi-attribute utility, and behavioral decision theory. Course Note: ID 280, HPM 286, or equivalent introductory course on decision analysis required or signature of instructor required; familiarity with matrix algebra and elementary calculus may be helpful but not required; lab or section times to be announced at first meeting.

RDS282. Cost-Effectiveness and Cost-Benefit Analysis for Hlth Prog. Eval (Department of Health Policy and Management and the Department of Biostatistics)
Dr. J. Hammitt

Lectures, seminars. Two 2-hour sessions each week.
Provides an introduction to methods for economic evaluation of health and environmental programs, including theory and applications. Topics include theory of benefit-cost and of cost-effectiveness analysis, definition and methods for estimating costs, stated-preference and revealed-preference methods for valuing health and mortality risk, quality adjusted life years. Course Note: Introductory decision analysis (e.g. ID280, HPM286) and economics (e.g. HPM205, HPM206) or signature of instructor required.

RDS284. Decision Theory (Department of Health Policy and Management and the Department of Environmental Health)
Dr. J. Hammitt

Lectures. Two 2-hour sessions each week.
Introduces the standard model of decision-making under uncertainty, its conceptual foundations, challenges, alternatives, and methodological issues arising from the application of these techniques to health issues. Topics include von Neumann-Morgenstern and multi-attribute utility theory, Bayesian statistical decision theory, stochastic dominance, the value of information, judgment under uncertainty and alternative models of probability (Dempster-Shafer theory, generalized probability), and decision making (regret theory, prospect theory, generalized expected utility). Applications are to preferences for health and aggregation of preferences over time and across individuals.
Course Note: Prior course work in decision analysis required.

RDS500. Risk Assessment (Department of Environmental Health and the Department of Health Policy and Management)
Dr. J. Levy, Dr. J. Evans

Lectures. Two 2-hour sessions each week.
Introduces the framework of risk assessment, considers its relationship with cost-benefit, decision analysis and other tools for improving environmental decisions. The scientific foundations for risk assessment - epidemiology, toxicology, and exposure assessment are discussed. The mathematical sciences involved in developing models of dose-response, fate and transport, and the statistical aspects of parameter estimation and uncertainty analysis are introduced. Case studies are used to illustrate various issues in risk assessment and decision making.
Course Activities: Lectures, discussions, computer workshops, case studies.
Course Note: Course required for all Environmental Science and Engineering Program students; minimum enrollment of five students required; enrollment limited to 30 students; signature of instructor required.

RDS501. Regulatory Toxicology (Department of Environmental Health and the Department of Health Policy and Management)
Dr. G. Gray

Lectures. Two 2-hour sessions each week.
Covers basic principles of toxicology and how animal studies are used to further the understanding of dose-response relationships. Development of toxicological evidence for regulating chemicals in the general environment, the workplace and food supply is covered. Role of toxicologic information in risk assessment is discussed in detail.
Course Activities: Lectures, discussions, case studies.
Course Note: Calculus and chemistry or biology courses required; EH 205 required; course required for all Environmental Science and Engineering Program students; signature of instructor required if student has not completed prerequisite.

ID285. Environmental Health Risk: Concepts and Cases (Department of Health Policy and Management and the Department of Environmental Health)
Dr. K. Thompson

Seminars. Five 2-hour sessions each week.
Challenges students to evaluate the risk analysis framework as an approach to managing environmental health and safety, and other hazards. Addresses contemporary issues in risk assessment, evaluation, management, and communications using a case-method approach.

Engineering Sciences 102. Introduction to Operations Research
Irvin C. Schick

Introduction to analytical and numerical methods for optimization of deterministic and stochastic systems; survey of linear and nonlinear programming, game theory, decision analysis, Markov chains, queuing theory and simulation. Examples taken from a variety of fields. A conceptual introduction to materials covered in depth in Engineering Sciences 201, 202, 205, and 210. Segments of the weekly problem sets can be done on PCs, if desired.
Note: Students who have no background in probability should be prepared to do some extra work. Some PC experience useful but not essential. Prerequisite: Applied Mathematics 21b or Mathematics 21b and some knowledge of probability and statistics at the level of Statistics 110 or Engineering Sciences 101.

(MIT) 6.251J. Introduction to Mathematical Programming
J. N. Tsitsiklis, D. Bertsimas

Introduction to linear optimization and its extensions emphasizing both methodology and the underlying mathematical structures and geometrical ideas. Covers classical theory of linear programming as well as some recent advances in the field. Topics: simplex method; duality theory; sensitivity analysis; network flow problems; decomposition; integer programming; interior point algorithms for linear programming; and introduction to combinatorial optimization and NP-completeness.

Research Seminar

RDS287. Research Seminar on Risk and Decision Analysis
Dr. J. Hammitt

Seminars. One 1.5-hour session every two weeks.
This doctoral level seminar introduces students to state-of-the-art scholarship in risk analysis and decision theory. Biweekly guest speakers from within and outside the university will present their current research projects. The seminar will aim for balance between theoretical and applied projects. While specific topics will change from year to year, relevant fields will include: theory and techniques of risk analysis; choice under uncertainty; health policy models; cost-effectiveness analysis; statistical decision theory; subjective probability and utility assessment.
Course Note: For doctoral candidates or for advanced master's degree students; signature of instructor required.

Uncertainty and Multi-Person Decisions

(KSG) API-301 Individual and Collective Decision-Making
Iris Bohnet

Focuses on understanding and improving the decision making of individuals and groups. Designed to help students think analytically about the ways decisions are made in the political and the economic arena. Provides both an introduction into the scope of decision sciences and interactive student learning in the practical skills of decision making. Examines (1) individual choice behavior under risk and uncertainty, (2) individual learning, (3) individual choice over time, (4) collective choice with conflicting interests, (5) coordination, and (6) institutional solutions to collective choice problems such as voting. The knowledge gained will be applied to several real-life cases such as the siting of nuclear waste facilities, as well as to experimental findings such as cooperation in the "prisoner's dilemma" game. Comparisons will be made across cultures and countries, and ethical aspects of decision making will be discussed. Prerequisite: Permission of instructor required.

(KSG) API-302 Analytic Frameworks for Policy
Jean Camp, Edward Parsons

Develops abilities in using analytic frameworks in the formulation and assessment of public policy. Considers a variety of analytic techniques, particularly those directed toward uncertainty and interactive decision problems. Emphasizes the application of techniques to policy analysis, not formal derivations. Students encounter case studies, methodological readings, the computer, a final exam, and challenging problem sets. Prerequisites: An understanding of intermediate-level microeconomic theory and introductory techniques of optimization and decision analysis, API-101, API-102, or equivalent.

Economics 1052. Introduction to Game Theory
Markus M. Möbius

An introduction to game theory and its applications to economics at a high level of rigor. Topics include extensive form and strategic form games, Nash equilibrium and Nash’s existence theorem, subgame-perfect equilibrium, Bayesian equilibrium, and applications to repeated games, auctions, and bargaining. Prerequisite: Economics 1011a and Mathematics 21b, or equivalent.

Economics 1055. Decisions and Negotiations
Michael A. Schwarz

Considers a variety of applications ranging from evaluating capital expenditures to personal medical decisions. Topics range from mathematical models for representing uncertainty and behavioral aspects of decision making to negotiations. Prerequisite: Economics 1010a or 1011a.

Economics 2052. Game Theory
Drew Fudenberg

Topics vary slightly from year to year, but typically include the equilibria of various classes of games, the definition and application of “common knowledge,” and non-equilibrium processes of strategy adjustment. Prerequisite: Economics 2010a or permission of the instructor.

Government 2005. Game Theory I
Scott Ashworth and Andrew Harriman Kydd

Introduction to decision theory, social choice theory, and game theory. Applications to all four subfields of political science. Undergraduates welcome.

(KSG) STM-221 Introduction to Negotiation Analysis
This course introduces students to the theory and practice of negotiation. The ability to successfully negotiate rests on a combination of analytical and interpersonal skills. Analysis is important because negotiators cannot develop promising strategies without a deep understanding of the context of the situation, the interests of the other parties, and the range of possible moves and countermoves. Interpersonal skills are important because negotiation is essentially a process of communication, trust building (or breaking), and mutual persuasion. This course will develop a set of conceptual frameworks that should help students analyze future negotiation situations and prepare more effectively. Through participation in negotiation simulations, students will have the opportunity to exercise powers of communication and persuasion and to experiment with a variety of negotiation tactics and strategies.

Psychology of Decision Making

Economics 1030. Psychology and Economics
David I. Laibson and Andrei Shleifer

Integrates psychological and economic analysis of behavior. Psychological topics include social preferences, impulsivity, bounded rationality, loss-aversion, over-confidence, self-serving biases, hedonics. Discusses how psychological experiments have been used to learn about preferences, cognition, behavior. Economic topics include arbitrage, equilibrium, rational choice, utility maximization, Bayesian beliefs, game theory. Integrates these psychological and economic concepts to understand behavioral phenomena such as credit card borrowing, portfolio choice, retirement saving, procrastination, addiction, asset pricing, auction bidding, labor supply, cooperation.
Note: Expected to be given in 2003–04. Prerequisite: Economics 1010a or 1011a, and knowledge of multivariate calculus.

(HLS) 90250-11 Seminar: Behavioral Law and Economics: Seminar
Professor Viscusi

Analyses of legal processes often assume that people adhere to certain assumptions regarding rational behavior. A considerable amount of emerging literature tests these assumptions using empirical evidence on actual performance of litigants and the courts, as well as experimental evidence on decision-making by judges and jurors. This seminar will explore a broad range of these issues, focusing particularly as they relate to the determination of liability and setting of damages. The seminar will begin with a brief overview of the principal findings in the psychology and economics literature concerning the rationality of individual behavior in general. To what extent are people subject to violations of assumptions or predictions of rational choice models, and are these errors systematic? The seminar will then consider a series of studies of the performance of judges and jurors. Is there a sound understanding of negligence rules? Are jurors subject to hindsight biases? How do the courts treat corporate risk analyses in accident cases? How do jurors map their desire for punishment into dollar amounts? Are there any evident biases in how jurors set punitive damages awards? What is the influence of anchoring effects on damages amounts? Studies of this behavior are not only pertinent for assessing legal reforms, but are also valuable in predicting how the courts will respond to different evidence and case situations. Students will prepare course papers that will be restricted to one of the themes of the course, such as the effect of hindsight bias on jury behavior. No previous economics background or other prerequisites are required.

Psychology 2650. Behavioral Approaches to Decision Making and Negotiation
Max H. Bazerman (Business School)

Research overview of behavioral decision making and decision analytic perspectives to negotiation. Explores bounded rationality, decision biases, human decision making. Develops a behavioral decision perspective to negotiation, and examines how the field is currently evolving. Note: Offered jointly with the Business School as 4420.

Psychology 2670a. Decision Making and Perceived Control I
Ellen J. Langer

Theory and research on decision making and control, including predictability, internal vs. external control, risk taking, mindfulness theory, learned helplessness, and obedience to authority. These topics are examined in a variety of applied settings. Note: Qualified undergraduates welcome to enroll.

Psychology 2670b. Decision Making and Perceived Control II
Ellen J. Langer

The deeper theoretical and experimental issues pertaining to decision making and mindfulness, as defined in *Psychology 2670a, are explored. Experimental research is required. Note: Qualified undergraduates welcome to enroll. Prerequisite: *Psychology 2670a

Program Evaluation

KSG API-208 Program Evaluation: Estimating Program Effectiveness with Empirical Analysis
Program evaluation comprises a set of statistical tools for assessing the impact of public interventions. This methodological course will develop students' skills in quantitative program evaluation. Students will study a variety of evaluation designs (from random assignment to quasi-experimental evaluation methods) and analyze data from actual evaluations, such as the national Job Training Partnership Act Study. The course evaluates the strengths and weaknesses of alternative evaluation methods. Prerequisite: Familiarity with the basic concepts of statistical inference and regression analysis (such as API-202). Not offered in 2002–03.

RDS201 Pharmacoeconomics & Economic Evaluation of Medical Technology
Dr. P. Neumann

Lectures. Two 2-hour sessions each week.
Examines key issues in the use of economic information in the evaluation of pharmaceuticals (and other medical technologies). Emphasizes applications of analytic techniques in a variety of disease areas, and includes discussions of the FDA's role, and the use of pharmacoeconomic information in coverage and reimbursement decisions by managed care plans. Course Note: RDS280 and HPM282 required or with instructor's signature.

HPM212 Program Evaluation in Health Policy
Dr. J. Needleman

Lectures, case studies. Two 2-hour sessions each week.
Course provides a one-semester overview of evaluation for those likely to participate in the design or implementation of evaluations in private organizations or government agencies. Topics include establishing the scope for an evaluation, evaluation design, data and measurement issues, issues in inference (appropriate controls, changing program design and unique local circumstances), and problems of assuring the accuracy, relevance and credibility of findings. Both quantitative and qualitative methods are addressed.

ID 207. Econometrics for Health Policy
Dr. Yip

Lectures. Two 2-hour sessions each week.
This course provides students with an understanding of basic econometric concepts and methods commonly used in health policy research. Special attention is given to modeling and model specification issues. Articles from the health policy literature and computer data exercises provide a context for discussion of the methods. Prepares students for a fuller understanding of the material covered in HPM 208. Course Note: Some prior course work in statistics necessary; signature of instructor required indicating suitable background.

PIH 241. Health Planning in Developing Countries: Cost-Effective Analysis and Priority Setting Techniques
Through the use of lectures and problem sets, students will learn the applied skills needed for the economic evaluation of health projects, interventions and programs. Emphasis will be placed on cost-effectiveness and its use in sectoral resource allocation decisions including ethical underpinnings. Course Activities: Students will gain experience using spreadsheets for calculations of costs and benefits. Course Note: some knowledge of economic or quantitative skills recommended.

Epidemiology and Clinical Trials

ID233 Research Synthesis & Meta-Analysis in Public Health and Medicine (Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology)
Seminars. One 3-hour session each week.
Concerned with the use of existing data to inform clinical decision making and health care policy, the course focuses on research synthesis (meta-analysis). The principles of meta-analytic statistical methods are reviewed, and the application of these to data sets is explored. Application of methods includes considerations for clinical trials and observational studies. The use of meta-analysis to explore data and identify sources of variation among studies is emphasized, as is the use of meta-analysis to identify future research questions.
Course Activities: Students prepare a protocol to conduct a meta-analysis and use existing meta-analysis software to apply principles outlined in the course to data sets provided for this purpose.

BIO214 Principles of Clinical Trials
Dr. J. Ware

Lectures. Two 2-hour sessions each week. Designed for individuals interested in the scientific, policy, and management aspects of clinical trials. Topics include types of clinical research, study design, treatment allocation, randomization and stratification, quality control, sample size requirements, patient consent, and interpretation of results. Students design a clinical investigation in their own field of interest, write a protocol for it, and critique recently published medical literature. Course Note: BIO 200, or BIO 201, or BIO 206 and one of BIO 207, BIO 208 or BIO 209, or BIO 202 and BIO 203, or signature of instructor required.

BIO214 Principles of Clinical Trials
Dr. K. Stanley, Dr. R. Gelber

Lectures. Five 2-hour sessions each week.
Designed for individuals interested in the scientific, policy, and management aspects of clinical trials. Topics include types of clinical research, study design, treatment allocation, randomization and stratification, quality control, sample size requirements, patient consent, and interpretation of results. Students design a clinical investigation in their own field of interest, write a proposal for it, and critique recently published medical literature. Course Note: BIO 200 or BIO 201 or BIO 206 and one of BIO 207, BIO 208 or BIO 209, or BIO202 and BIO 203 or signature of instructor required.

EPI204 Analysis of Case-Control and Cohort Studies
Dr. K. Joshipura, Dr. C. Hsieh

Lectures, laboratories (optional). Two 2-hour sessions each week.
Examine, through practical examples, common modeling issues in multivariate regression analysis for etiologic studies. Explore analytic approaches in the presence of missing data, confounding interaction, and collinearity. Emphasize analysis and interpretation of results in the context of research question and study design.
Course Activities: Written group projects, class discussion, short quiz, homework. Course Note: EPI 203 required; BIO210 required, can be taken concurrently.

EPI207 Advanced Epidemiologic Methods
Dr. J. Robins, Dr. M. Hernan

Lectures. Two 2-hour sessions and one 2-hour lab each week.
Provides an in-depth investigation of statistical methods for drawing causal inferences from observational studies. Informal epidemiologic concepts such as confounding, selection bias, overall effects, direct effects, and intermediate variables will be formally defined within the context of a counterfactual causal model and with the help of causal diagrams. Methods for the analysis of the causal effects of time-varying exposures in the presence of time dependent covariates that are simultaneously confounders and intermediate variables will be emphasized. These methods include g-computation algorithm estimators, inverse probability weighted estimators of marginal structural models, g-estimation of structural nested models. As a practicum, students will reanalyze data sets using the above methods.
Course Activities: Class discussion, homework, practicum and final examination. Course Note: EPI204 and, BIO210, or BIO233, or signature of instructor required; familiarity with logistic regression and survival analysis is expected; lab time will be announced at first meeting.

EPI221 Pharmacoepidemiology
Dr. A. Walker

Lectures. Two 2-hour sessions each week.
Within the framework of formal epidemiologic analysis, this course covers inference about the effects of pharmaceuticals from case reports, case series, vital statistics and other registration schemes, cohort studies, and case-control studies. Decision-making with inadequate data is examined from the perspectives of manufacturers and of regulators. Students are graded on the basis of group projects. This course is intended primarily for students wishing to pursue a career in the pharmaceutical industry or in national regulatory bodies, but may have more general interest as an applied mid-level course with a heavy methodological emphasis. Course Activities: Written and oral group projects, individual class presentations, class discussion. Course Note: Knowledge of epidemiology at the level of EPI 202 and a basic understanding of drug use and nomenclature are assumed; completion of EPI203 preferred; enrollment limited to 25 students; signature of instructor required.

EPI241 Measuring Health Status
Dr. E. F. Cook

Lectures. One 2-hour session each week.
Examines methodologic issues related to measures of health status encountered in clinical research. Topics to be covered include instrument development, scaling, assessment of reliability, validity and responsiveness to change; principal component analysis and factor analysis; item response theory
Course Activities: Working in groups students must design an instrument to measure a construct of choice, distribute that instrument to a population, analyze the performance of the instrument from that data and present their results in class. Course Note: Minimum enrollment of 10 students required.

HPM514 Developing Questionnaires to Measure Outcomes of Health Care
Dr. T. Lieu, Dr. E. Cook, Dr. M. Connelly, Dr. L. Nekhlyudov

Lectures, case studies. Five 1.75-hour sessions each week.
This course emphasizes concepts, methods, and practical procedures for developing questionnaires for assessing patients' health status and the outcomes of care. The course reviews qualitative and quantitative approaches to developing measures. Statistical methods needed to construct and use scales and indices successfully are also presented and discussed. A group project is required in which students collaborate to construct an instrument, conduct a pilot test, administer a final form to colleagues, and analyse and present data on instrument performance. On the basis of their experience in this course, students will be able to locate available research-quality instruments for measuring health care outcomes, make intelligent choices among existing instruments, interpret the results of questionnaire-based data from their own and others' research, and participate in the development of original outcomes measurement tools. Course Note: Introductory courses in epidemiology and biostatistics required; enrollment limited; signature of instructor required.

Infectious Disease Modeling

EPI225 Epidemiology of Infectious Diseases
Dr. M. Murray

Lectures, seminars, case studies. Two 2-hour sessions each week.
This course covers the basic concepts of infectious disease dynamics within human populations. Focus will be on transmission of infectious agents and the effect of biological, ecological, social, political, economic forces on the spread of infections. We will emphasize the impact of vaccination programs and other interventions. The dynamics of host-parasite interaction are illustrated using basic mathematical modeling techniques.
Course activities: written homework assignments and final exam. Previous coursework in epidemiology helpful.

EPI260 Mathematical Modeling of Infectious Diseases
Dr. M. Lipsitch

Lectures, seminars. Two 2-hour sessions each week.
This course will cover selected topics and techniques in the use of dynamical models to study the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases. Class sessions will primarily consist of lectures and demonstrations of modeling techniques, with some guest presentations by researcher in the field. Techniques will include design and construction of appropriate differential equation models, equilibrium and stability analysis, parameter estimation from epidemiological data, determination and interpretation of the basic reprodutive number of an infection, techniques for sensitivity analysis, and critique of model assumptions. Specific topics will include the use of age-seroprevalence data, the effects of population heterogeneity on transmission, stochastic models and the use of models for pathogens with multiple strains. This course is designed for students with a basic understanding of mathematical modeling concepts who want to develop models for their own work.
Course Note: Previous course in calculus is required; EPI225 or permission of instructor required.

ID267 Infectious Disease Epidemiology Seminar I
Department of Epidemiology and Department of Immunology and Infectious Disease
Dr. M. Lipsitch, Dr. M. Murray

Seminars. One 2-hour seminar each week.
Seminars consist of presentations of student and faculty research in progress and discussion of recent publications in the field of infectious disease epidemiology. The emphasis is on conceptual issues related to the epidemiology of infectious diseases.
Course Activities: Individual student papers and presentations, student and faculty critiques.
Course Note: Must be taken for credit by students in the Program on the Epidemiology of Infectious Disease. Signature of instructor required. This course in intended for doctoral students currently involved in thesis work and for others with active research projects.

ID268 Infectious Disease Epidemiology Seminar II
Departments of Epidemiology and Immunology and Infectious Disease
M. Lipsitch

Seminars. One 2-hour seminar each week.
Seminars consist of presentations of student and faculty research in progress and disucssion of recent publications in the field of infectious disease epidemiology. The emphasis is on conceptual issues related to the epidemiology of infectious diseases.
Course Activities: Individual student papers and presentations, student and faculty critiques.
Course Note: Must be taken for credit by students in the Program on the Epidemiology of Infectious Disease. Signature of instructor required; pass/fail grading option only. This course in intended for doctoral students currently involved in thesis work and for others with active research projects.